Texas has long been a Republican stronghold as most of the voting population has leaned red with their ballots over the past thirty-plus years. But while the stereotypes of the state include conservative-friendly images such as cowboys, ranches, oil derricks, football, and a population heavy on rugged white males, the Lone Star State is actually much more diverse, with the Hispanic demographic outnumbering whites (40.2% vs. 39.8%) as of the 2020 census. With this notable shift, and with the unpopular legislation passed over the last few years by the white male-dominated state government, Texas is close to the point that it can be considered a purple state and could be on the verge of turning blue.
The fact is that the major population centers of the state (Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, etc.) typically favor the Democrats in the elections, and it is mostly the rural areas that Republicans have been relying upon to keep their control in statewide elections. Meanwhile, the GOP has an easier time winning at the district level because of the gross gerrymandering that they have put into place, but their ability to hold on even at this level is starting to waver.
With the demographics shifting away from the base that typically votes Republican, one of the reasons that the state has remained red is widespread voter apathy. In the 2020 presidential election, only 60.2% of registered voters showed up to cast a ballot. Among the 50 states and the District of Columbia, that puts Texas as the seventh lowest in voter turnout. Donald Trump beat Joe Biden by a margin of 5.6% in that election, the narrowest victory for a Republican in the state this century. With Kamala Harris surging in the polls, and the demographics leaning in her favor, it is very possible she could pull an upset if the Democrats turn their attention to the state in the remaining weeks of the race.
In the 2020 presidential election, 66% of Moderates in Texas voted for Biden, and there are plenty of reasons to believe that will increase as that group has soured on Trump’s policies and antics. 51% of women in the state voted for Biden, and that could go up significantly now that Harris has the Democratic nomination. 58% of Hispanics in Texas cast their presidential votes blue in 2020, but that demographic had low voter turnout with only 23% of ballots cast despite the fact that they represent 40% of the population. If the Democrats can energize that base, and there are many reasons to believe they can, it will significantly cut into Trump’s previous margin. In addition, young voters leaned more heavily blue in the last election, and there is every reason to believe they will continue to do so in the upcoming race.
Looking more closely at these groups, it seems to me that no woman would ever cast a vote for a Republican again until they reverse their negative stance on reproductive rights and take great strides to dial back the damage they have already done. I understand that there are still plenty of women who will cast their ballots red, but with Harris leading the Democratic ticket and with that party championing the right of women to choose what they do with their bodies, it sure seems like we could expect a notable shift in votes, with that demographic turning even more heavily blue. As mentioned above, 51% voted for Biden in 2020, and I would not be surprised to see that rise to 60% or higher in the upcoming election. That could come from women voters who previously did not participate but are more energized now because of the abortion issue, and I also expect to see quite a number of former red votes switch to the blue side. That will certainly cut into Trump’s former margin if not single-handedly swing the state to Harris.
As for the Hispanic population, far more vote Republican than I would expect (41% in the prior election), but they still lean more heavily Democrat with 58% casting their votes for Biden the last time around. And sadly, this demographic has not typically shown high participation in the elections in this state, in part because of apathy due to the gerrymandering of the Republican Party. But with the immigration policies championed by state GOP members, which have delivered an all-out assault on the Hispanic community, as well as recent voter suppression attempts, perhaps this will energize those who previously avoided the polls. If participation were to increase by five to ten percent and if more Hispanics cast blue votes, that would cut even further into Trump’s previous margin.
There is also another huge opportunity for Democrats to swing the state in their favor, and that is by appealing to the rural vote. That community has typically leaned heavily Republican because they see the party as more in line with their conservative values. But the fact is that there are a high number of minorities in these counties (particularly Hispanics and Blacks), and Democrats have done plenty over the years to help the rural community. In addition, recent policies pushed by state Republicans have worked to the detriment of those in rural areas, such as the voucher system for education, dialing back SNAP benefits, and even declining money for free lunches for kids. The Democrats certainly have plenty to offer this community, and they could swing a lot of votes in their favor if they put enough energy into messaging in that direction.
Yet another group that has voted notably in favor of Democrats is young people aged 18 to 30 years old. They have tended to be disillusioned with politics, and that is another demographic that has not turned out in large numbers for the elections. Many were energized to vote in the 2020 election because they did not want a second term from Trump, but they were not too thrilled with Biden as the option because of his age. A younger and more energized Harris should certainly appeal to this group, though, and her policies do provide more hope for the country they are inheriting. They represent about 20% of the population, and if Harris can convince them to head to the polls, they would give the Democrats a bump as well.
Kamala Harris is currently trailing Donald Trump in Texas by about 5 percentage points according to various polls. Those take into account likely voters, though, so if she manages to energize people who previously did not cast ballots, the numbers could be much closer. Down ballot from Harris is Colin Allred, who is running against Ted Cruz for a seat in the Senate. Allred is close to even in some polls, and he has a notable grassroots campaign pushing for him.
At this point, Harris, Allred, and the Democratic Party need to make a concerted push for the state because it presents a huge opportunity. The path is clear and there are plenty of votes to scoop up or to switch from red to blue, and if they target the key demographics, that can certainly happen. If the Democrats take Texas, it is all over for the Republican Party in the presidential race because of the 40 electoral votes it represents. Their message appeals to the groups I have mentioned above, along with plenty of others, so if they can spread the word and energize enough voters, the Lone Star State can turn blue at the federal level and perhaps begin the process of wresting the control of state politics away from the Republicans as well. But Harris, Allred, and more need to get in front of those voters and make sure their message is heard.
The Texas voting demographics above come from Wikipedia.