As we head into the 2024 election, Joe Biden continues to poll as an unpopular choice for president (as does Trump), and the general messaging from the right wing is that the United States is struggling during his first term. Donald Trump has regularly attacked his opponent on the state of the economy, recently claiming “We are a nation whose economy is collapsing into a cesspool of ruin, whose supply chain is broken, whose stores are not stocked, whose deliveries are not coming”. But that is in direct opposition to the facts, and is just one of the many false claims he peddles to his followers as he tries to paint himself as the better option. Trump has actually gone so far as to suggest that he hopes for an economic collapse under Biden (despite the widespread turmoil it would cause) so that he could use that as another item to campaign on.
But despite these erroneous claims, and despite the fact that Biden and the Democrats have not done very well at communicating their accomplishments (more on that in an upcoming post), the U.S. continues to recover from the economic downturn under Trump (which was made worse by COVID), and things look promising for the near future. Taking a look at just a few numbers will dispel the claims that the economy is failing under Biden and suggest that his policies are actually helping the nation. Note that the actions of a presidential administration are not always directly correlated to economic growth or decline, but they can have some influence. And there certainly is a strong argument that some of Biden’s actions have helped our economic recovery.
First up, let’s take a look at GDP (Gross Domestic Product). This is a common metric used for gauging the strength of the economy, though it does not necessarily relate to how well the average person is fairing at any given point in time. But currently, the GDP is on the rise and seeing some of the biggest gains we have experienced in years. The country experienced a notable drop in 2020 due to the impacts of COVID, but a significant increase followed in 2021 (Biden’s first year in office) and it has continued to go up from there (click on the chart to enlarge).
Source: MacroTrends.net
Another indicator is the performance of the stock market, but like GDP, strong numbers do not always translate into the economic wellbeing of the average person. If trickle-down economics really did work, a good stock market would pass its benefits to the rest of the country. But that theory has long been disproven. Still, Trump regularly touted the stock market gains while he was in office (also taking credit for them even while not in office), so it is worth taking a look at how those numbers have looked under Biden. You can see from the Dow Jones Industrial Average that the market has performed well so far most years under Biden, though it did experience a bit of a setback in 2022. Overall, though, the numbers are higher than when Trump was in office, something that he refuses to acknowledge as an accomplishment for Biden.
Source: MacroTrends.net
Turning to a metric that has more impact on the average U.S. citizen, we have seen drop in inflation after hitting record highs as a result of the impact of COVID. Those numbers shot up notably in 2021 and 2022 as the nation was recovering from the pandemic, but there has been a sharp drop from the highpoint of 2022 and inflation currently only stands at 3.2%, though it continues to fluctuate. Of course, the rise in interest rates which helped feed the decline in inflation have had a negative impact, making it harder on those buying houses, cars, etc. But if inflation continues to settle, that should be followed by an easing of those rates.
Source: USInflationCalculator.com
Next up is a look at the unemployment rate. This skyrocketed in 2020 due to COVID, but it has come down notably in the years since. And while 2022 is the only year to beat the low point we saw in 2019, the unemployment has hovered at a relatively low rate since the 2020 spike and dispels the myth proffered by the right wing that nobody wants to work.
Source: 2012-23 – Investopedia.com, 2024 – BLS.gov
One last metric I will look at here is the median annual wage across the country. This tracks the midway point for annual wages before taxes and other deductions and includes any overtime pay, commissions, or tips usually received (and it is at the main job in the case of multiple jobholders). The number has steadily increased over the last eight years or so and we saw a notable bump in 2022 and 2023 (the latter number is not final, though). There was also a notable bump in 2020, but that was skewed by COVID because people who remained employed during that time tended to be in professional jobs with higher median salaries. Despite that, there was still an increase from 2020 to 2021, though much smaller, as the country moved back to more steady employment.
Source: DemandSage.com
Bloomberg offers an even deeper dive into Biden’s accomplishments so far in his first term, but the economic indicators above give an initial glimpse at how the country has been turning around under the current administration. Donald Trump and his right wing supporters want you to believe that the United States is currently in bad shape in order to support their narrative that Biden is not the right choice to lead the country. But the fact is that the U.S. is headed in the right direction as far as the economy is concerned, and Biden has had a hand in guiding the country in the right direction. Don’t believe the lies and misinformation, but look instead at the facts. The numbers presented here are quite telling, and there is plenty more available for those who want to dig deeper.